Global Warming - A Conservative Perspective

It is unfortunate that the subject of global warming has become so politicized that it is difficult to talk about it reasonably.  Perhaps a bit of common sense will help.

There are four primary factors that determine the temperature of earth’s atmosphere. 

The first is the heat generated by the sun.  When this energy output varies, the temperature of the earth will likewise change.

The second is heat generated in the interior of the earth.  This is caused by atomic fission, and by the gravitationally induced movement of the molten interior.  There is nothing anyone can do about this – not even politicians – so it is not really an item for discussion.

The third has to do with earth’s orbit around the sun.  Over periods of many thousands of years, this orbit changes as it is influenced by the gravitational pull of other planets – especially Jupiter and Saturn.  Periodic “ice ages” result from the earth being a tiny bit further from the sun. 

The last ice age began about 150,000 years ago.  At that time, the sea level was about 15 - 20 feet higher than present levels.  As the ice age progressed, increasing amounts of water were locked on land in the form of glaciers covering most of the Northern Hemisphere.  As far south as Kentucky, the ice was over a mile thick!  Sea levels dropped some 300 feet.

Then about 20,000 years ago, earth moved a bit closer to the sun and became warmer.  Ice began to melt, and the sea level began to rise.   It would be expected that eventually, the sea level would return to the levels that preceded the ice age – about 15 - 20 feet above present levels if other things stayed the same.

Scientists and politicians have not yet devised ways to influence earth’s orbit, so this is not really an item for discussion either.

The fourth primary factor influencing earth’s temperature is human activity that releases “greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere.  A few basic realities may make this clearer.

Everything that exists has a temperature, and therefore radiates energy.  [Even an ice field in Antarctica will radiate energy into the much colder emptiness of space.]   This energy is radiated in the form of electo-magnetic waves.  The length of these energy waves is inversely related to the temperature:  low temperature things radiate energy in long wavelengths; high temperature things radiate energy in short wavelengths.  The shorter the wavelengths, the easier it is for that energy to penetrate things.  For example, X-rays are shorter than the rays of energy that constitute light and can actually penetrate human flesh.

The temperature of the surface of the sun is about 6000 degrees (C) above absolute zero, and the wavelengths of the energy radiated from the sun are quite short.  They easily penetrate the gases in the atmosphere to warm the surface of the earth.  The average temperature of earth’s surface is about 300 degrees above absolute zero, and the wavelengths of the energy radiated from earth back into space are therefore about 20 times longer than the wavelengths of energy from the sun.   These long wavelengths of energy cannot easily penetrate the gases in the atmosphere -- especially water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane -- and are either absorbed by the gas molecules or are reflected back to earth, causing further warming.  (The French mathematician/physicist Joseph Fourier wrote about this as early as 1824.)

It is like your car on a hot summer day.  Energy from the sun gets though the window glass and warms the interior of the car.  But the longer wave lengths of energy radiated by the interior of the car are trapped by the glass, and further warm the interior.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution some 200 years ago, the burning of coal and oil has released huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in addition to that released by natural sources.  Global warming has accelerated dramatically.

For many eons, billions of  tons of carbon dioxide and methane have been locked away in the frozen permafrost of arctic climes.  As the atmosphere has warmed, this permafrost has begun to melt, releasing enormous amounts of greenhouse gases,  thereby accelerating the warming process. 

Much of earth's water is still locked on land in the form of glaciers and ice fields.  As the earth has warmed, this ice has begun to melt, and sea levels throughout the world have begun to rise -- more and more rapidly.  When all the ice in Greenland has melted, sea levels will rise about 20 feet. When the ice in Antarctica has melted, sea levels will rise another 200 feet, inundating most coastal cities and tens of thousands of square miles of low-lying land.

In my opinion, global warming is the most important issue facing us as Americans, as citizens of the world, and as those whom God holds responsible for the well-being of the world.  It is more important than any pandemic; more important than tax reform or the economy, more important than immigration, more important than abortion issues, more important than concern over guns or drugs, more important than war in the Middle East, and is even more important than the possibility of nuclear war.  Civilization (such as it is) might possibly survive a nuclear war.  I do not think anything resembling our civilization can survive the ocean rising 200 feet.

There may still be time to avert this disaster, but we must act NOW!  The present American administration must act decisively and quickly – even if it means postponing other worthwhile programs.

It is interesting that some of the first people (such as future Nobel laureate Svente Arhineus in 1896) to write about global warming regarded it as a good thing, because it would open vast areas of land in the Arctic for human habitation.  They probably did not know how much water was locked on land in the form of ice, and did not realize that its melting would cause a catastrophic rise in sea levels.

What can we do to help make things better?  We can live more conservatively, severely limiting our consumption of anything that involves the use of coal or oil in its production or operation.  We can recycle as much as possible.  But most of all, we can vote intelligently -- voting only for candidates who take global warming seriously and promise to do something to limit it.

Surprisingly, there are some who deny the reality of global warming, or minimize its importance.  This can be understood if we understand that there are two kinds of science:  REALITY SCIENCE and POLITICAL PARTY SCIENCE.  In Reality science, TRUTH is regarded as that which corresponds to reality.  In Political Party science, truth is regarded as that which benefits the party.

For instance, to slow down global warming, we must severely limit our use of coal and oil -- which will certainly eliminate many jobs and damage the economy.  And if the economy is a politician's main concern, he (or she) will find some way to rationalize a denial of global warming.  Another example is tobacco.  Reality Science tells us that smoking damages one’s health.  But if a politician receives a large donation from a tobacco company, he or she may begin to question the validity of that science.

Actually, global warming (and the subsequent rise in sea level) is destroying us rather slowly.  It might be a hundred years or so before cities like Miami Beach are uninhabitable, and the politicians who benefitted by letting this happen will be long dead.  But unless serious action is taken now, it will happen, and the world our descendants will inherit will be damaged beyond recognition.

There is nothing liberal about this point of view; it is strongly conservative.  We must stop liberating so much carbon dioxide and methane if we are to conserve the earth.

[Henry Close is a pastoral counselor (retired) who cares very much about the world we are leaving to our descendants.  His science consultant is his son, Rob, PhD, (physics), UC Berkeley.]